Premier League leaders Arsenal’s 2-2 draw at West Ham has gifted Manchester City yet another helping hand in a dramatic title race.
The Gunners, who are chasing their first title since 2004, hold a four-point lead over City, but Pep Guardiola’s side have a game in hand and host Mikel Arteta’s team on 26 April in what could be the decisive fixture.
Sunday’s draw was preceded by a 2-2 draw at Liverpool last weekend when Arsenal also gave away a two-goal lead.
City have a superior goal difference – 50 to Arsenal’s 43 – and have won their past 10 games in all competitions, scoring 37 goals and conceding only four.
While Arsenal have seven league matches remaining, City are still in the hunt for the FA Cup and Champions League, and could have a packed schedule until the end of the season with as many as 14 games.
Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at data analyst Nielsen’s Gracenote, said: “The chance of Arsenal lifting the Premier League trophy next month has declined from 50% on 4 April to 32% now, their lowest chance of winning the title since early November.
“Manchester City’s chance of winning the Premier League – 68% – is now at its highest level this season.”
Nielsen’s Gracenote has worked out the percentage chance Arsenal and City have of winning their remaining matches, according to its Euro Club Index formula.
Arsenal have not beaten City in the league since 2015.
They have met twice this season, with City winning 1-0 in the FA Cup in January and 3-1 in the league in February.
But Arsenal may have history on their side.
According to Opta, 13 sides in the top flight have had 73 or more points after 30 games (when adapted to three points for a win) and only two of those failed to win the title – Manchester United in 2011-12 and Liverpool in 2018-19.
Less reassuringly for Arsenal fans, it was City who finished as champions on both those occasions.
City are specialists at this stage of the season. They have collected 145 points in the final 10 matches of the past six seasons combined – more than any other team.
