China has increased the cost of condoms and other contraceptives as part of renewed efforts to encourage higher birth rates, a move that analysts and residents say is unlikely to reverse the country’s deepening demographic crisis.
From January 1, consumers are now required to pay a 13 percent value-added tax (VAT) on contraceptives, including condoms, after the government scrapped long-standing tax exemptions on the products, according to a report by AFP.
The policy shift comes as Beijing grapples with a rapidly ageing population, a shrinking workforce, and record-low marriage and birth rates. Authorities have in recent years rolled out a series of measures aimed at encouraging couples to have more children, including easing family planning restrictions, offering childcare incentives, and promoting “family values.”
However, interviews with young residents in Beijing suggest that making contraceptives more expensive will do little to influence decisions around marriage and childbearing.
“You can raise the price of condoms, but that won’t give people stable jobs or affordable housing,” one young professional told AFP. Others cited high living costs, job insecurity, and widening social inequality as the main reasons many young Chinese are delaying or abandoning plans to start families.
Analysts echo this view, warning that fiscal measures targeting contraception fail to address what they describe as the structural drivers of China’s fertility decline. These include prohibitive property prices in major cities, the high cost of education and childcare, demanding work cultures, and uncertainty about long-term economic prospects.
China’s population has now declined for three consecutive years, marking a historic reversal after decades of growth. United Nations projections paint a stark picture: the population could fall from about 1.4 billion today to roughly 633 million by 2100 if current trends persist.
Demographers caution that without broader reforms—such as improved social welfare, stronger labor protections, and affordable housing—policies like taxing contraceptives are unlikely to trigger the baby boom Beijing is seeking.
As China continues to search for solutions to its demographic slowdown, the condom tax has instead sparked debate over whether the government is tackling symptoms rather than the underlying causes of its population decline.
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