Transition Exclusive: How Oulanyah’s death hurt Museveni’s decision
By Executive Editor
In early 2022, the country received news of the death of Speaker of Parliament/Omoro County Member of Parliament, Jacob Oulanyah.
He died in Seattle, USA where he had been flown for treatment.
“It is with a lot of sadness that I announce the death of Jacob Oulanyah, the Speaker of Parliament. I got information of this sad news at 10.30am, East African time from people that have been with him and the doctor that was caring for him in the intensive care unit,” President Yoweri Museveni announced on March 20, 2022.
“He was a good Cadre,” the President added.
By the time of Oulanyah’s death, knowledgeable sources say that the President had decided to have Oulanyah become President in a transition process.
According to our source, the President was not convinced about having any member of his family capture power immediately after him. That way, he wanted Oulanyah to take over and that any other person would then take over afterwards. In the arrangement, Presidential Advisor on Special Operations, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, was set for an appointment as the Chief of Defense Forces – CDF.
However, Oulanyah’s death cut short the plan.
Norbert Mao
In sourcing Mao (now the Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs), a source says it is aimed at continuing the Oulanyah project. Again, sources note that Mao is looked at as the next President immediately after Museveni to allow for transition to whoever will have interest in the top seat.
Again, the argument is that even if anyone within the First Family admires the Presidency, he or she should come after Mao.
Against the above background, Mao, who was a very good friend of Oulanyah, was brought closer to complete the project.
Bobi Wine disadvantaged
An elder we have spoken to says that Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) does not come in the mix at this time. Although our source says that Bobi Wine has age on his side, his interaction does not pit him as a Presidential material. The source cites example of Museveni between the 60s and early 80s. The source says Museveni, much as he was ruled out like it is with Bobi Wine today he (Museveni) had valuable connections. He related with lawyers and big players in academia. Sam Njubas. Yet, Bobi Wine continues to have fellow musician, Nubaian Li as his very close friend and advisor.
“Those you see running around Bobi now are beneficiaries, not strategists,” a knowledgeable insider says.
“Museveni was a learner. He humbled himself to learn from the best brains.”
The source admits that Bobi Wine at 39 or 40 years old, still has over four attempts at Presidency but warns that he could end up an Odinga.
Dr. Kizza Besigye
Col (RTD) Dr. Besigye has had four attempts at Presidency with the first one being in 2001. The attempts have not been successful. However, insiders say that Besigyie is looked at a vengeful. “He is the kind who would want Museveni arrested and jailed and his wealth seized. That is why it is hard to put him in the transition agenda,” a source says. Dr. Besigye has since taken a back seat, and allowed other faces of change to come up. For instance, in 2021, he gave way for FDC Party President Patrick Amuriat Oboi to appear on the ballot.
Maj. Gen. Rtd. Mugisha Muntu
At some point, Gen. Muntu’s name appeared in the succession talk. In fact, he is rated highly even within the ruling party – the National Resistance Movement – NRM.
“Muntu doesn’t look at Museveni. He looks at Uganda. He discusses Uganda and not Museveni. That’s a leader,” a source says. Muntu, who led the FDC – Forum for Democratic Change, now heads Alliance for National Transformation – ANT, a change-seeking political party.
The same source, however, says that Muntu’s disadvantage is that he is too clean for politics/Presidency. “He can’t even tell a lie,” says the source. “When he resigned as army commander, some people looked for scandals against him and failed to get any. That’s Gen. Muntu. Yet, politics is a dirty game.”
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