Diana Ampaire Kampe
An opinion poll conducted days before the National Female Youth Member of Parliament elections has come under scrutiny after sharply contrasting with the final results declared in Hoima last Friday.
On February 1, 2026, UGDiplomat carried out an online opinion poll on the closely watched race, which showed Diana Ampaire, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) flagbearer, cruising comfortably ahead. Ampaire garnered 172 votes, while her rivals Mercy Kanyesigye and Jalia Muhumuza polled 32 and 44 votes respectively.
The poll appeared to reinforce the long-held assumption that securing the NRM ticket in youth parliamentary elections is almost a guaranteed path to victory.
However, when delegates converged in Hoima City to cast their ballots, the outcome told a different story. Mercy Kanyesigye, who leaned towards the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), emerged winner with 216 votes, narrowly defeating Ampaire who secured 198 votes. Muhumuza finished a distant third with 24 votes. A total of 439 votes were cast, with one invalid ballot recorded.
Political analysts now argue that the opinion poll may have created a false sense of security around Ampaire’s candidacy.
“There is a strong possibility that the poll lulled Ampaire’s camp into complacency,” one analyst noted. “Online sentiment does not always translate into delegate voting, especially in college-based elections.”
Observers point to contrasting campaign styles in the final stretch before polling day. While Ampaire was reportedly hosting meetings with delegates at high-end venues such as Sheraton Hotel, Kanyesigye was actively mobilising on the ground, particularly in student-dominated areas like Kikoni, engaging directly with voting delegates.
“The youth MP elections are decided in the trenches, not boardrooms,” another observer remarked. “Kanyesigye invested heavily in face-to-face engagement, while Ampaire appeared to believe the race was already won.”
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The outcome has reignited debate about the reliability of informal opinion polls in Uganda’s internal political contests, especially those involving structured delegate systems rather than mass voters.
As the dust settles, the Hoima results serve as a reminder that political momentum can shift quickly—and that perceived dominance in pre-election polling does not always guarantee victory at the ballot.
