President Museveni
President Yoweri Museveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM) maintains overwhelming support across most regions of Uganda, while opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi of the National Unity Platform (NUP) retains a strong foothold in Buganda, according to the latest regional public opinion polls released by the Africa Polling Institute (API) ahead of the 2026 general election.
The poll, which breaks down voter preferences by region, shows Museveni (NRM) leading decisively in 14 of the 16 regions surveyed, in some cases posting margins above 80 percent, underscoring the ruling party’s entrenched rural and regional support.
Buganda remains Kyagulanyi’s stronghold
Buganda stands out as the only region where Kyagulanyi leads. The poll indicates that Kyagulanyi commands 53 percent support in Buganda, compared to Museveni’s 45 percent, with 2 percent backing other candidates. Buganda has historically been the opposition’s power base and remains central to NUP’s electoral strategy.
NRM sweeps most regions
Outside Buganda, Museveni enjoys commanding leads:
- West Nile: Museveni 81%, Kyagulanyi 15%
- Ankole: Museveni 87%, Kyagulanyi 9%
- Busoga: Museveni 50%, Kyagulanyi 45%
- Acholi: Museveni 85%, Kyagulanyi 14%
- Rwenzori: Museveni 78%, Kyagulanyi 18%
- Teso: Museveni 83%, Kyagulanyi 14%
- Bunyoro: Museveni 88%, Kyagulanyi 11%
- Lango: Museveni 83%, Kyagulanyi 16%
- Kigezi: Museveni 86%, Kyagulanyi 10%
- Karamoja: Museveni 89%, Kyagulanyi 10%
- Tooro: Museveni 77%, Kyagulanyi 20%
- Acholi (another segment): Museveni 81%, Kyagulanyi 18%
- Sebei: Museveni 85%, Kyagulanyi 14%
These figures suggest that while Kyagulanyi has made inroads in traditionally NRM-leaning areas such as Busoga and Tooro, Museveni continues to enjoy broad national dominance.
Kampala Metropolitan Area: opposition-leaning but split
In the Kampala Metropolitan (KMP) area, the contest tightens. Kyagulanyi leads with 60 percent, compared to Museveni’s 39 percent, reflecting urban dissatisfaction with the ruling party. However, this urban support is not sufficient on its own to offset Museveni’s large margins in upcountry regions.
Bugisu shows mixed picture
In Bugisu, Museveni leads with 55 percent, Kyagulanyi has 25 percent, while 20 percent support other candidates—one of the highest shares for “others” in the poll, suggesting a more fragmented electorate.
Implications for 2026
The API poll paints a picture of a polarized but predictable electoral landscape: Kyagulanyi remains dominant in Buganda and urban centers, while Museveni retains deep-rooted support across most rural regions. Unless opposition support expands significantly beyond its traditional strongholds, the numbers indicate a steep uphill task for NUP in the January 2026 presidential election.
Uganda heads to the polls on January 15, 2026, with the presidency, parliament, and local government positions all at stake.
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